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Countdown to the Closing Bell

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Us 12, Europe 9, Washington 9, Ashley 6, Nicole 6, U.s. 4, Citi 4, S&p 3, Imax 3, New York 3, Les Miz 3, China 3, Adam 2, Shibani Joshi 2, Ashley Webster 2, Ameritrade 2, Angela Merkel 2, Apple 2, Cme 2, Iran 2,
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  FOX Business    Countdown to the Closing Bell    News/Business. Stock  
   market updates. New.  

    December 26, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. ♪ dennis: -- >> looked worse earlier, the past hour or so, the dow just in the green, bank of america doing some heavy lifting today. it's the one dow stock hitting new highs. good afternoon, everybody, i'm ashley webster, the last hour ever trading, and the count down to the closing bell begins right now. as i said earlier on, appears the bulls had too much eggnog and christmas cheer thanks to the continued uncertainty of washington, no real progress on a debt deal. the house speaker stuck in a blizzard in ohio, but you know what? the dow managed to raise
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earlier, just up a hint now, just a touch. meanwhile, the nasdaq, the s&p500, and the russell, as you can see, down slightly on the day after christmas. retail stocks are casting a follow on the market, the s&p500, the high end end names, all in the red. we got coach, high end retailers such as tiffany moving lower, ralph lauren, urban jut fitters lower on poor data on sales this holiday season, and it's all due to the latest holiday spending figures that the stocks move lower. sales decreasing at a slow pace since the recession hit in 2008 according to the mastercard survey, the latest one. we'll pick apart the numbers later on in the show. hey, but check out crude oil, @ jumping today, up more than 2%, 3% on the day, near 91 bucks a barrel. first, there's optimism about a
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budget deal, perhaps in the next few days, optimism, isn't it, and supply concerns, iran is conducting naval test exercises and a strait of hormuz beginning tomorrow through the weekend. that could be a touchy situation and, hence more support for oil. the price of crude up nearly 3%. right to the floor. we have traders on the new york stock exchange, the cme group, and the imex. we start with crude, perhaps iraq scaling down its production. we got iran doing their naval exercises again, and perhaps a little bit of optimism that washington will finally get it done, but either way, look at it, hoil of to the upside. >> yeah, i think all the reasons mentioned are partly why we're up higher today. i also think this is just a technical rally. we broke out above key resistance levels. i think we can trade up to 92 #.09, the next level up.
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there's a report of a terrorist threat thwarted in united arab emirates, and we have early indications inter next crude oil number is a draw. bullish as well. ashlie williams thank -- ashley: thank you. firstly, doreen, what happened? well, we are negative again, but wiped most of the losses on the day on a very quiet day. >> very, vie quiet. as you pointed out, ashley, retailers what everybody's looking at because it's a predicter and indication of how consumers feel, and gdp in 2013, you know, consumers are 70% of the number, and it doesn't really, the numbers we're hearing about this holiday season does not reflect well for beginning of 2013 so we're all nervous about that. ashley: we're just going to drift until they do something in washington? >> i think so. i mean, the likelihood of them getting something done in
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washington, i think, is slim to none. the fact that the president is coming back early indicates to me that he's getting a little more worried about it than initially we thought he was, and with the retail numbers coming out today, i think he should be. ashley: yeah, no kidding. cme, gary, i wanted to talk gold with you. well, first off, we saw the u.s. dollar hit had a two year high against the japanese yen appearing the japanese are printing money, but gold is stuck in a range right now. why is that? >> well, normally, in a time like this, you see it be the flight to safety. ashley: yeah. >> we're seeing the euro dollar. everybody's going there because there's no negative news. hang on to your hats for the gold. i believe we'll see it getting to 1680 week's end and tach that 1700 mark. again, everybody's worried about the two letters, "fc," fiscal cliff, and pulling from the u.s. dollar, the yen is pulling back, the new regem that's in there,
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they are doing what they need to do, and nobody's going to gold right now. silver is sneaking up slowly, above the $30 range. we'll see that take off. reason for that is we look at china. china's economy is turning the corner. that's also helping with what you folks talked about earlier in the crude oil. see how it plays out. even though it's a light volume week as far as trading -- ashley: still, though, a downward trend with the chart. what's the story with silver? >> well, you saw silver pull back with gold. normally, they run, and now what we're seeing is there's a little bit more demand. china's picking up the pace a little. we are seeing silver that's up, what, 24 cents as of today? not a bad move from a one day, especially in the light volume. ashley: if we get it done on the fiscal cliff, will we see a selloff in metals? >> i don't believe that we will. europe right now is the safe
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haven. there's no negative news. by any means, they are not done with all that's going on over there. everything is focused here on the u.s. and the fiscal cliff, and until that is resolved, if it gets resolved, the traders are pulling back, volatility's high, and there's going to be very thin volume in the markets. it's not going to take much to get gold and silver back up. >> well, back to cindy quickly. if we have a deal, is it bullish for oil? she's already gone. i'll ask doreen, you're with us, aren't you? >> i am. volume, today, by the way, 37% below the three month average. could lead to some volatility, but we have not seen that, have we? >> we have not, but vix is up at 19, a little bit higher. the hope is to get more volume here, otherwise, you know, the fiscal cliff is killing everything. everything. these guys don't get it in washington.
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i don't know why. i hope they come to their senses soon. ashley: nobody knows why, but i'm tired of saying "fiscal cliff," i know that. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> and cindy who ran off. thank you very much. that's the floor show. washington running out of time to avert the fiscal cliff and after plan b, well, that got nowhere, the house g.o.p. insists it's the senate's turn to suggest a plan, but the senate, well, yet to make a move. peter barnes joining us from dc with the littest on, what, doesn't seem to be going anywhere? we have the speaker, peter, stuck in a blizzard in ohio. >> yeah, that's right, ash, and we've got the senate coming back in tomorrow, and the president coming back into tossen so everybody -- into town so everybody is looking to harry reid, the senate democratic leader and the president to make a move here in the standoff, white house and senate democratic staff were discussing steps to avert the cliff monday. we didn't get an update on the
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status of the conversations from the white house today. a spokesperson for senator reid saying, quote, nothing to report, no conversations with republicans yet. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell who can filibuster anything reid proposes, a spokesperson saying, quote, no outream from dems. we are waiting on senate democrats. if nothing's done, january 1st, the nation faces a $5 trillion tax increase over ten years through the expiration of the bush tax cuts and assuming congress does not approve the patch anded medicare doc fix, and other things. the lapse of the tax cuts means the top tax rate reverts to 39.6 from 35% now. taxes would also go up for lower income earners. the maximum low rate would revert to 15% from 10% now, and investors see capital gains rate revert from 20%, revert to 20%,
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rather from 15% now. depending on what analysis you look at, average families could pay $2,000 to $4,000 more in taxes next year. ashley? ashley: that's the why it's called the cliff. thank you, peter. >> you bet. ashley: the speaker stuck in a storm, but the phones do work. bell ringing soon, and amazon known for customer service, especially over the holidays, but it's not cared over to the web hosting business. merry christmas for hollywood. ticket sales going through the roof. details when "count down" returns. ♪
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♪ >> well, earlier, of course, we touched on the weakness in retail after disappointing data. well, technology shares under pressure, especially the large cap names. the selling could be due to uncertainty on a budget deal and folks just wanting to lock in gains, potentially, of course,
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before taxes on capital gains go up next year. maybe not such a surprise. check out the spider select technology fund, an etf, exposure to the likes of, yes, app 8, and soft -- apple, and software makers and stocks. xlk, the name, and it's dropping. apple, of course, look at what apple's doing, down today, about 1%, but it is up 27% this year. google moving higher. microsoft and ebay lower today, especially ebay down, well, nearly a buck today on the trade. all right, so about, oh, about 47 minutes left of trading on the day after christmas. the markets still trying to get back to the water mark. they are now down about six points after briefly getting above in positive territory. tech stocks the worst. case index showing home prices on the rise, a good thing. check in on how this moves the
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markets, if at all, nicole's on the new york stock exchange, and jeff flock at the cme. nicole? >> the home builders, a great day to take a look, and the numbers, talk about the month over month, down .1%, which is an improvement over what analyst had the exception with a 2%, and year over year with a gain that out paced the analysts' expectations. the group is mixed today. jrhorton down 1%, and kb homes gaining 1%. the group has done well. i chose these names to give a look over 52 weeks. i mean, 376%, that is the gain that we are seeing on hovnanian. 376%. i said it again just in case you missed it the first time. we've seen the housing recovery underway, and today's numbers echo that sentiment. it's been slow; however, and
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each time you get the numbers in, there's experts like david blitzer saying it's an upbeat assessment saying the recovery is gathering strength. back to you. ashley: encouraging sign, slow and steady, could be awhile before we are close back to normal. >> right. >> whatever normal is. nicole, thank you. jeff, what's going on with oil and line lumber? >> well, true, you know, the numbers really inching up in lumber as well. i'm in the lumber pit. trading concluded, but this is a small pit, six or seven or eight guys in here, and i say "guys," because they are usually guys. the lumber numbers, up 3.5% today, and lumber's traded in board feet, the contract, you know, what's a board foot, by the way, a foot that doesn't have anything to do. no, a board foot is a one foot length of lumber that's one foot wide and one inch thick.
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up $15, a thousand board feet here today, but the biggest mover in terms of volume is oil, as you pointed out, a big move for oil today, wti up -- the most it's been to the highest level in two months, the last number i had was up over -- almost $891 -- $91 a barrel, 2.5% for the day. the middle east, traders, not so much fiscal cliff optimism, nobody has optimism on that, but stuff from the middle east as guests earlier pointed out. a terror cell foiled, and that's not a foiled, even though it was foiled by the uae, it's more indicative there's probably -- there's trouble there, and military exercises in iran and cut in production bid kurds in iraq. that's the oil and line lumber. >> no bored feet here either.
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>> thank you very much. ashley: two new movies certainly a hit at the box office over the holidays. you may have seen one or both. i don't know, dennis kneale has the story. dennis: hello, ashley. a clash at the box office. the rap.com called it battle of the sexes at the multiplexes. movie fans had a choice, would the men see "d'jango, a violent r-rated western or would the women hold the poir and, instead, opt for les miz? the musical based on a novel from 1862. well, the results are in. the women won. les miz, com cast june veer sal studios took the top stop kicking the keester of quinton.
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the d'jango got second place at $15 million. the fox film "parental guidance" with a respectable $7 million on christmas day, and the weekend box office, leading up to tuesday holiday, there's "the hobbit: an unexpected journey," and the tom cruise vehicle coming in second over 15 mill, and three others, "rise of the guardians," and "lincoln" rounding out the film. les miz opened in japan beating "the hobbit," a far bigger film, and d's jango set a bigger r-rated film record on christmas day. the blood fest vested by a musical, that's got to be hard for qin ton to take. ashley? ashley: that's the power of women. we'll see les miz.
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dennis, thank you. of course, imax carrying both that and hobbit. it's up 2.5%, and you see the imax, not bad, moving cliesly, but the box office hits gives imax a big boost today, an offshoot of the holiday block buster movie business. closing bell ringing in about 41 minutes, consumer spending, of course, roughly two-thirds of gdp, and the economy is better, how do you play the retailers in the new year? scott of bbc capital markets has a 2013 shopping list, two of them are high players, no doubt, but the other, perhaps available in the counsel with a cheap skin uggs back in demand and ideas in retail. that's up next in a fox business exclusive. ♪
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ashley: power mover. welcome back, amazon a weak link on the nasdaq today with shares down 3.67% as you see, making the online retailing giant the power mover of the hour in the wrong direction. what's going on? there's concerns about the web services, business, and netflix was knocked out christmas eve. great, huh? affecting 27 million sub scriners thanks to a problem with amazon who hosts the data. other companies may think twice using amazon for web hosting needs given the outage at netf netflix. look at the 12-year stock here, up 44% this year, so, yes, the outage was bad news, but it could be just a catalyst for some profit taking as well as we head towards, well, almost the end of the year.
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taking a look at what else is going on on the floor today. barely made it above the water line, down a little bit now, and out to nicole. nicole? let's go to adam first. i'm sorry. retailers. >> that's all right. ashley: slashing profits. >> nicole's nicer to look at. ashley: adam, no disrespect to you, i thought we were going to nicole. we go to her so often, of course. >> every 15 minutes. ashley: exactly. tell me about retail and the problem on the retail stocks today. >> do i have to, ashley? it's not a pretty picture. ashley: i'm afraid so. >> this year, projections for holiday shopping growth over last year are revised and revised down. in fact, some expectations are that this is the worst retail season we've had for holiday shopping since 2008. now, according to mastercard's spending polls, and that's a track of everything, cash,
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checks, and credit cards, we will see growth between -- or saw growth between october 28th and december 24th of seven tenths of a percent. put that in perspective, in 2011, same time frame, sales grew by 2%. giving you a lot of reasons for this most of which they seem to believe was superstorm sandy that hit the big shopping areas and 5 lot of the big -- a lot of the big population centers on the east coast, and people there in new york, new england did not shop, and that was sufficient enough to bring down the numbers nationwide. there was a built of a rebound prior to christmas, but not enough to put us back on track for what the national retail federation says is their prediction for the holiday shopping season. 4.1% growth over last year, $586 billion season, but others say, no, nrf is off, and, in fact, shopper trek on monday revised from 3.3% to 2.5% growth.
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expect to see big sales, especially when you consider, nrf says, i think, that retailers make anywhere from 20% to 40% of revenue in the holiday shopping season, could be bad news for a lot of people. ashley: could indeed. adam, thank you very much. >> yep. ashley: there's a holiday hangover today, no doubt about, that but they have to help customers know when a sale is a sale. scott, bbc capital markets retail analyst joining me in a fox business exclusive. scott, what do you mean? people are told when a sale a really a sale in >> well, it started in 2008 during the recession. gonzo promotions, 7 # 0% off, 80% off, telling customers they need to come in today to buy, and retailers waning themselves off of that. this year, we noticed through channel checks there was more of an every day low prices strategy. walmarts, the expert at it, customers trust walmart when it's the lowest price.
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walk into a retailer like joseph a. banks continue substantiately offering by one, get one. ashley: sometimes buy one get five free. >> the message is come in every day and get a suit for $200. i don't think that resinates with the customer. dress barn, part of the retail group of a company we follow, sold sweaters for $12 each. last year, they may have been $25, but it was buy one, get one free. the deal may have been better this year, but in the customers' minds, unless you build the trust knowing they are getting the lowest price possible, it's a tough challenge. ashley: you say that yes is the worst performance, apparently, from one analyst, the worst since 2008. you say we blame the wrong things for this. who should we be blaming? well, it's always a product thing with retail. what we focused on is that,
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well, the overall growth data is not great, people that are doing well, that have been doing well, or continue to do well, and so, you know, ugg boots, for example, a hot commodity this christmas. michael kors watches are popular. sweaters, winter jackets, external factors impacting them. ashley: 2013, who do you like and not like going into the new year? >> apparel is the tough category. you have to be picky in apparel. we like hanes brands, and the other is carters, baby clothes. both companies sell products and are less discretionary and benefit from lower cotton costs year over year. carters' last quarter, growth margin up about a thousand basis points, and you'll see that tail wind into the first half of the year. hanes brands has a deleveraging event using the lower cotton costs to pay the debt and go
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from a highly leveraged company to a regular, sort of under leveraged. ashley: jcp, talking of pennys, 1 that strategy working for them? >> well, jcpenney attempts the everyday low price strategy, didn't work in 2012. what's going for them they have the confidence in the suppliers. the suppliers like carters and hanes that we follow are willing to work with them to invest in shop and shops and create product exclusive to jcpenney. i don't know if that's happening in 2013. i know from our stand point, the companies we follow, they are going to get the list if jcpenney improves in 13 #, and that's a possible catalyst. ashley: interesting. who do you not like? >> well, a company we just recently lowered a rating on is afena retail group, great
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management team, but they are in the sweet spot of where the customer's shopping, and that's in the value oriented miss category, women averages age of 30-60 #. they have enough stuff in the closet, they are the first ones to stop shopping. ashley: thank you, capital markets retail analyst, thank you very much. appreciate it. much, appreciate it. the closing bell ringing under half an hour. opportunities in europe, you heard me right, europe. even with the debt crisis and austerity measures. running the scout international fund, that fund up about 20% this year finding bargains throughout europe land. the global footprint. up next with a fox business exclusive. [ malennouncer ] it's tt time of year again.
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>> i am adam shapiro with our fox business brief. stocks are swinging between gains and losses. we have five days left before the fiscal cliff. washington preparing for another round of wheeling and dealing tomorrow. right now the dow was trying to find direction, down this .10 points. a downturn after being ordered to pay nearly $1.2 billion in damage in a patent infringement lawsuit. sued for infringing patents related to data storage technology. edmunds.com predicting new car
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sales will slow in the new year but still plenty of optimism in the auto industry. consumers will continue to benefit from new models, new technology potentially lower prices as automakers continue to fight for market share. we continue "countdown to the closing bell" with ashley webster. ashley: let's go to nicole petallides at the floor of the new york stock exchange. shares of rim, research in motion. rim it is for real. shares of research in motion. research in motion has been beaten down the past couple of sessions. concerns of a new structure put in effect, and what they were going to do is use a tear factor, those tiers, is unclears unclear how they were going to break down. it contributes to the research in motion revenue. for two days we saw the selling
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from the blackberry maker, and now it is bouncing back and a nice performance. talking to the analyst talking positively saying it has been beaten down. the blackberry 10, january 30. put it on your calendar. ashley: people looking for that. doing better. thank you. the u.s. struggles to think about the fiscal cliff, is it time to invest your money abroad, overseas? while europe has many problems of its own is an understatement, joining us now, investment chief economic strategist, fox business exclusive. thank you very much for joining us. international fund up 20% year to date, how did you manage to do that? >> it has been mainly issues with a substantial weight in europe, 50% little underweight
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compared, but we have had a substantial bet they are. but basically issue selection. within germany the companies have done well, in general it has been an issue selection. ashley: you think of areas being well, europe is not one of them. he mentioned germany, even germany is being dragged down to what is going on in the region as a whole. how do you pick the stocks? you like the multinationals, don't you? >> one thing that we have invested in his multinationals. companies around the world, spain, peril around the world. cars around the world.
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multinational companies that are doing stuff right in this environment. we think that is the formula, broad-based market and the people that are executing within that. ashley: aren't you concerned about continued volatility in that area? italian elections coming up in february, german elections not far behind that, has to be seen whether angela merkel can survive that. does that give you cause for concern? >> there is no question about that. every election that has happened in the last two or three years, the incumbent has been evicted from office. you can worry about angela merkel, our guess is she is doing other than the rest of them and will survive, there's
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plenty to worry about that is what makes overall the market depressed and therefore attractive. ashley: you like the auto sector and insurance, tell us a little bit about that. >> insurance kind of our chicken way of finance. we are not comfortable with the euro banks we think the insurance companies are in much better shape, they came off of catastrophic losses last year so the p/e ratios are a little higher than they appear. not as high as they appear rather. this year or next year's estimate fairly reasonable and they mentioned a four and .5% yield roughly, it is an attractive package. it is on a worldwide upturn in consumer demand is not happening fast.
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like in this country were all those are selling at her and we think the economy here and abroad is slowly building up momentum. we need to remember stock investing is in essence investing in a leading indicator. the market leads the economy, if we wait for the economy to say it is all clear, we will miss most of the price action. we think this is a time to be shopping. ashley: notice on the allocation around the world, the asian investments make up about 21%, or thereabouts of your portfolio. do you expect to be set up as we go down the line? or down the road a little bit? >> we raised japan a little bit. it'll be interesting to see, they're going the opposite direction from europe. and now the prime minister wants to in essence practice stimulus
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in monetary policy, fiscal policy. it'll be interesting to see how that works out. we think pushing down the yen will be part of it and that has been the big drag on the industry is the currency has stayed high for about three years now. so we will see how that shakes out. ashley: we are already out of time. scout investment chief international equities strategist, likes europe. thank you for joining us. >> a pleasure, good to be here. ashley: the closing bell ringing in about 60 minutes or thereabouts. a conundrum in the gold market if you own the precious metal, you made out like a bandit, but minors have been dead money. find out why the chief investment officer at security's balloon is loading up on mining
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stocks. coming up next in a fox business exclusive.
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ashley: earlier we touched on the weakness in retail and technology stocks. on the flipside we have strengthened technology stocks. a fairly lackluster tape. it is up, as you can see, half a percent on the day. many economic names are part of this. if you believe global growth will tolerate and the problems in washington are temporary,
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materials may continue until 2013. so natural resources up nicely on the day. a lot of green arrows making him the best performers on the s&p 500 today. that stock up 18% over the past month. the big copper and gold producer up nicely. $0.50 on the day. valet, the brazilian mining giant, and the coal producer, peabody energy another green arrow up $0.41 on the day. all good performers to counteract some of the retail and stocks that have been a real drag today. five days left until we dive over the fiscal cliff, is there any chance washington will settle on a deal? my next guest says deal or no deal, the stocks will be stuck in neutral for the next two years. oh, dear.
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joining us, chief investment officer of security for lou. joining us by phone. two years we will be bumbling along. whether we hit a deal or not. what makes you say that? >> it is about several things. global growth slowing, debt levels and developed economies are high. starting the next area in the government sectors. tax rates are going up, so when you combine those things together, to makes for potential recessionary conditions. we have had markets bubbling across the world in the last three and a half years, time to take a breather in my opinion. ashley: you see us and they won't get past the september highs. you truly believe that? >> i do. you go back to what the market will do, the recessionary conditions for the present and the market tends to go down, not
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up. we look at the recession going into one, around nine months on average, the market tends to decline over 15 to 18 months which tells me september and october represented the highs, we will be looking at 2014 before we see the lows and probably 2015 before we can exceed those highs. ashley: gdp dropping by 2%. the latest housing numbers continue to be well not spectacular, certainly heading in the right direction. it seems to me that the more optimistic in your outlook. >> housing and the stock market to different asset classes. housing has gone down a lot with the housing rate, it will continue to recover. remember what hosting is, does not an investment, closer to consumption item, it is important part of our economy, part of the overall growth.
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housing and stocks are clearly two different asset classes, so i do think housing could do fine, even do well, no different than the 2000 to 2002. >> if the prices come up, consumers and homeowners still better, they spend more, perhaps businesses will start unleashing cash and will start hiring more. kind of a stumble for, isn't it? >> there will be some tailwinds like that, but keep in mind the headwind coming from some of the things republicans and democrats agree on only fiscal cliff will cut gdp growth substantially. you think what effect the government spending 7% plus of our gdp on debt to bases every year for the last four years, you're talking about north of a trillion dollars economic impact. ashley: you say stay away from
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equities, what in particular? >> long-term treasuries a deflation hedge. the stability and coupons, emerging market coupons for some holdings in newly emerging market equities. keep in mind i am not saying stay completely away from equities. normal risk exposure. ashley: what about gold, do you like the mining stocks as compared to the gold etf? >> i do like the mining stocks trading at 30-year lows and price relative to gold. if you own some equities, it is preferable in the gold sector. ashley: investment officer joining us by phone this afternoon. thank you so much. the closing bell rings fairly
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soon here, under six minutes time. can you guess which tech companies are up more than 100% this year? known as the google china poised to take on apple with new technology. we will tell you what it is right after the break. [ indistinct shouting ]
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♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all onhinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ ashley: shares of chinese search engine with a new up today around 5%. the company reportedly designed intelligence recognition program like apple series for the platform of google play.
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reportedly slated to release the feature some time this week. the new app will offer voice responses with the help of a gigantic database for the search engine to the stock up nicely today hitting its high point midafternoon still up around 5%, shares up more than 100% this year. not bad at all. for the very latest, let's go over to david asman and shibani joshi. david: thank you very much. shibani joshi taking liz claman spot for the day. let's go to nicole petallides. i said hello or early this morning. at the new york stock exchange. we have seen upside down this today, but look at what happened to oil. the huge jump in oil, up

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